New Approaches to the Economic Security of Russian Regions in Terms of the COVID-19 Pandemic

The study aims to identify the problems of economic security of the Russian regions under the influence of force majeure caused by the pandemic COVID-19 and their assessment, as well as to determine ways to stabilize the socio-economic situation. The authors conducted a grouping of the economic security indicators of the federal districts and proposed a methodology for its assessment in terms of the coronavirus pandemic. The authors identified the problem areas of socio-economic development of the Russian regions and also proved the decline in their economic security during the pandemic. The authors evaluated the effectiveness of the internal state administration of the federal districts according to the anti-crisis measures adopted in 2020 (maintaining turnover in the main regional segments of the economy, avoiding tax debt on regional fees, increasing the profitability of the real business, raising the level of digital development), as well as measures to preserve employment and solvency of the population of each region. The authors justified the directions of normalization of the socio-economic development of the federal districts of Russia by eliminating the economic security problems. © The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2022.

Geodemographic classification of the North Caucasus Federal District Regions

Introduction. The dynamics of the vital movement of the population of the North Caucasus for 2005-2020 is investigated. Research methods and materials. Both traditional and the latest geographic research methods are used - comparative geographical, spatial analysis, statistical, GIS technologies, population surveys, etc. Research results. The conducted studies have shown that despite the apparent well-being, a tense demographic situation is developing in the North Caucasus. Favorable demographic results are obtained only at the expense of three subjects - Dagestan, Ingushetia and Chechnya. In other regions, narrowed and negative reproduction is observed. The natural increase is getting lower and lower. The small generation born in the 1990s reached the fertile age. COVID-19 restrictions and a crisis in the economy have led to an even greater decline in the birth rate and an increase in mortality. The conducted geodemographic classification of the regions of the North Caucasus showed that the most favorable situation is observed in Ingushetia, the situation is slightly worse in Chechnya and Dagestan, narrowed reproduction in Kabardino-Balkaria and Karachay-Cherkessia and the most tense situation is in North Ossetia and the Stavropol Territory. Conclusion. To improve the situation, a differentiated approach is needed to different regions in the demographic sphere, the creation of new workplaces. The outflow of the able-bodied population from the regions of the North Caucasus leads to a violation of the population age composition and, thereby, undermines the fertility of the population. This leads to a decrease in the birth rate and, accordingly, natural increase. Resume. The article presents the results of studies of the natural movement of the population of Russia and the North Caucasus Federal District. At the same time, the multi-scale method of research and geodemographic classification was taken as the basis. It has been established that relatively favorable results on the scale of Russia were achieved in the North Caucasus Federal District, and on the scale of the North Caucasian Federal District - in Ingushetia, Chechnya and Dagestan. It was determined that along with the traditional factors of mortality, the factor of infectious morbidity began to play a significant role. It is shown that at the same time, mortality in working age has increased. It was revealed that there is a significant territorial differentiation of the natural movement of the population both in Russia as a whole and in the North Caucasus Federal District. The results of the research can be useful in developing programs for further demographic development of the regions. © 2022 North Caucasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy, State Technological University. All rights reserved.

Modern Development Trends Hospitality Industry of the South of Russia

This study is aimed at analyzing the features of the functioning of the hospitality industry in the South of Russia. The authors gave a brief description of the Southern Federal District, analyzed the quantitative indicators of collective accommodation facilities, the total number of rooms in hotels and rooms of the highest category in hotels and similar accommodation facilities over the past five years. The study revealed the degree of impact on the hospitality industry of the analyzed region of the pandemic caused by COVID-19, analyzed the income from the services provided by collective accommodation facilities of the Southern Federal District, including the republics of Adygea, Kalmykia, Crimea, Krasnodar Territory, Astrakhan, Volgograd, Rostov regions and the federal city of Sevastopol. The study includes statistics on the number of citizens of the Russian Federation and foreign citizens accommodated in collective accommodation facilities, the average number of employees of hospitality industry enterprises. The analysis made it possible to develop recommendations for improving the activities of city hotels and suburban accommodation facilities through the use of new, more efficient sales channels, the introduction of personalization using CRM systems, expanding the list of additional services that make it possible to develop comprehensive tourist offers such as weekend tours, which will allow if you do not provide new jobs, then save the existing ones, contribute to preventing the closure of business in the hospitality industry, thereby maintaining the standard of living in the district by maintaining the income of the population and preserving the income of local budgets. © 2023, The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.

Geodemographic classification of the North Caucasus Federal District Regions

Introduction. The dynamics of the vital movement of the population of the North Caucasus for 2005-2020 is investigated. Research methods and materials. Both traditional and the latest geographic research methods are used - comparative geographical, spatial analysis, statistical, GIS technologies, population surveys, etc. Research results. The conducted studies have shown that despite the apparent well-being, a tense demographic situation is developing in the North Caucasus. Favorable demographic results are obtained only at the expense of three subjects - Dagestan, Ingushetia and Chechnya. In other regions, narrowed and negative reproduction is observed. The natural increase is getting lower and lower. The small generation born in the 1990s reached the fertile age. COVID-19 restrictions and a crisis in the economy have led to an even greater decline in the birth rate and an increase in mortality. The conducted geodemographic classification of the regions of the North Caucasus showed that the most favorable situation is observed in Ingushetia, the situation is slightly worse in Chechnya and Dagestan, narrowed reproduction in Kabardino-Balkaria and Karachay-Cherkessia and the most tense situation is in North Ossetia and the Stavropol Territory. Conclusion. To improve the situation, a differentiated approach is needed to different regions in the demographic sphere, the creation of new workplaces. The outflow of the able-bodied population from the regions of the North Caucasus leads to a violation of the population age composition and, thereby, undermines the fertility of the population. This leads to a decrease in the birth rate and, accordingly, natural increase. Resume. The article presents the results of studies of the natural movement of the population of Russia and the North Caucasus Federal District. At the same time, the multi-scale method of research and geodemographic classification was taken as the basis. It has been established that relatively favorable results on the scale of Russia were achieved in the North Caucasus Federal District, and on the scale of the North Caucasian Federal District - in Ingushetia, Chechnya and Dagestan. It was determined that along with the traditional factors of mortality, the factor of infectious morbidity began to play a significant role. It is shown that at the same time, mortality in working age has increased. It was revealed that there is a significant territorial differentiation of the natural movement of the population both in Russia as a whole and in the North Caucasus Federal District. The results of the research can be useful in developing programs for further demographic development of the regions. © 2022 North Caucasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy, State Technological University. All rights reserved.

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on cancer incidence and cancer care in patients with prostate cancer in the Siberian Federal District.

Background. Prostate cancer incidence rates continue to increase every year, therefore, the study of the quality indicators for cancer care, especially during a pandemic, is of great importance. Aim. To analyze prostate cancer incidence rates and quality indicators of cancer care in the Siberian Federal District. Materials and methods. For the calculation of cancer incidence rates, population-bases cancer registry data were used. Quality indicators were calculated according to the methodological recommendations of P.A. Hertzen Moscow Oncology Research Institute - branch of the National Medical Research Radiological Center. Results. The implementation of restrictive measures and the suspension of cancer screening programs in 2020 negatively affected the cancer care. The prostate cancer incidence rate decreased from 52.8 per 100 000 population in 2019 to 43.1 per 100 000 population in 2020, especially in the territories of the Republic of Tyva and the Omsk Region. Morphological verification in 2020 decreased compared to 2019 (97.0 % versus 97.8 %), with the exception of the Krasnoyarsk Territory and the Republic of Altai. Early prostate cancer detection increased from 62.9 to 64.0 %, and cancer detection at late stages decreased from 36.3 to 35.0 %. One-year mortality in the region decreased from 8.0 % (2019) to 7,3 % (2020), however, it increased significantly in the Republic of Tyva (from 3.2 to 40.0 %) and the Altai Republic (from 3.7 to 10.7 %). The number of patients who have been followed-up for 5 years or more increased from 40.7 to 42.3 %, except for Republic of Altai (from 32.8 to 25.0 %). Conclusion. Delay in the diagnosis of prostate cancer is associated with advanced stage, poor survival and high cost treatment.Copyright © 2022 Authors. All rights reserved.

Healthcare Recommender System Based on Medical Specialties, Patient Profiles, and Geospatial Information

The global outburst of COVID-19 introduced severe issues concerning the capacity and adoption of healthcare systems and how vulnerable citizen classes might be affected. The pandemic generated the most remarkable transformation of health services, appropriating the increase in new information and communication technologies to bring sustainability to health services. This paper proposes a novel, methodological, and collaborative approach based on patient-centered technology, which consists of a recommender system architecture to assist the health service level according to medical specialties. The system provides recommendations according to the user profile of the citizens and a ranked list of medical facilities. Thus, we propose a health attention factor to semantically compute the similarity between medical specialties and offer medical centers with response capacity, health service type, and close user geographic location. Thus, considering the challenges described in the state-of-the-art, this approach tackles issues related to recommenders in mobile devices and the diversity of items in the healthcare domain, incorporating semantic and geospatial processing. The recommender system was tested in diverse districts of Mexico City, and the spatial visualization of the medical facilities filtering by the recommendations is displayed in a Web-GIS application. © 2022 by the authors.

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on cancer incidence and cancer care in patients with prostate cancer in the Siberian Federal District

Background. Prostate cancer incidence rates continue to increase every year, therefore, the study of the quality indicators for cancer care, especially during a pandemic, is of great importance. Aim. To analyze prostate cancer incidence rates and quality indicators of cancer care in the Siberian Federal District. Materials and methods. For the calculation of cancer incidence rates, population-bases cancer registry data were used. Quality indicators were calculated according to the methodological recommendations of P.A. Hertzen Moscow Oncology Research Institute – branch of the National Medical Research Radiological Center. Results. The implementation of restrictive measures and the suspension of cancer screening programs in 2020 negatively affected the cancer care. The prostate cancer incidence rate decreased from 52.8 per 100 000 population in 2019 to 43.1 per 100 000 population in 2020, especially in the territories of the Republic of Tyva and the Omsk Region. Morphological verification in 2020 decreased compared to 2019 (97.0 % versus 97.8 %), with the exception of the Krasnoyarsk Territory and the Republic of Altai. Early prostate cancer detection increased from 62.9 to 64.0 %, and cancer detection at late stages decreased from 36.3 to 35.0 %. One-year mortality in the region decreased from 8.0 % (2019) to 7,3 % (2020), however, it increased significantly in the Republic of Tyva (from 3.2 to 40.0 %) and the Altai Republic (from 3.7 to 10.7 %). The number of patients who have been followed-up for 5 years or more increased from 40.7 to 42.3 %, except for Republic of Altai (from 32.8 to 25.0 %). Conclusion. Delay in the diagnosis of prostate cancer is associated with advanced stage, poor survival and high cost treatment. © 2022 Authors. All rights reserved.

Air pollution and mobility in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area in times of COVID-19

This paper analyzes the relation between COVID-19, air pollution, and public transport mobility in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA). We test if the restrictions to economic activity introduced to mitigate the spread of COVID-19 are associated with a structural change in air pollution levels and public transport mobility. Our results show that mobility in public transportation was significantly reduced following the government's recommendations. Nonetheless, we show that the reduction in mobility was not accompanied by a reduction in air pollution. Furthermore, Granger-causality tests show that the precedence relation between public transport mobility and air pollution disappeared as a product of the restrictions. Thus, our results suggest that air pollution in the MCMA seems primarily driven by industry and private car usage. In this regard, the government should redouble its efforts to develop policies to reduce industrial pollution and private car usage. © 2023 Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Instituto de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y Cambio Climático. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

HLA Genotypes in Patients with Infection Caused by Different Strains of SARS-CoV-2.

The aggressive infectious nature of SARS-CoV-2, its rapid spread, and the emergence of mutations necessitate investigation of factors contributing to differences in SARS-CoV-2 susceptibility and severity. The role of genetic variations in the human HLA continues to be studied in various populations in terms of both its effect on morbidity and clinical manifestation of illness. The study included 484 COVID-19 convalescents (northwest Russia residents of St. Petersburg). Cases in which the responsible strain was determined were divided in two subgroups: group 1 (n = 231) had illness caused by genovariants unrelated to variant of concern (VOC) strains; and group 2 (n = 80) had illness caused by the delta (B.1.617.2) VOC; and a control group (n = 1456). DNA typing (HLA-A, B, DRB1) was performed at the basic resolution level. HLA-A*02 was associated with protection against infection caused by non-VOC SARS-CoV-2 genetic variants only but not against infection caused by delta strains. HLA-A*03 was associated with protection against infection caused by delta strains; and allele groups associated with infection by delta strains were HLA-A*30, B*49, and B*57. Thus, in northwest Russia, HLA-A*02 was associated with protection against infection caused by non-VOC SARS-CoV-2 genetic variants but not against delta viral strains. HLA-A*03 was associated with a reduced risk of infection by delta SARS-CoV-2 strains. HLA-A*30, HLA-B*49, and HLA-B*57 allele groups were predisposing factors for infection by delta (B.1.617.2) strains.

SMALL AND MEDIUM-SIZED BUSINESSES IN THE NEW ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT

In recent years, the socio-economic environment for doing business has changed significantly under the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and increasing sanctions on the Russian economy. The small business sector is particularly affected by these factors. The aim of the paper is to study the “reaction” of the Russian small and medium-sized businesses (SME) sector to the new economic environment and to analyse its “perception” of state support measures. The information base consists of the works of domestic and foreign scientists, the data of sociological research at the country level and at the regional level (subjects of the Northwestern Federal District). In the study, the methodology of system analysis was applied, sociological and statistical analysis was carried out. The results of the study show that despite the focus of the federal and regional authorities on creating conditions to offset the effects of external “shocks” on the business sector, there remain unresolved problems. These include low effective demand and poor business infrastructure in some areas, which hinders SMEs' access to finance for business development. This situation has led to a decline in SME revenues and employment, as well as a deterioration in the demographics of enterprises. The deterioration of the business environment has also been identified as having a negative impact on the attitudes and willingness of the population to engage in entrepreneurship. The authors assess the accessibility of state support measures for entrepreneurs using the example of the Vologda Oblast. On average, only about 60 % of those who applied for assistance were able to receive it. The authors prove that under the conditions of strengthening external shocks the necessity of state support for the SME sector increases, especially in terms of tax and financial support. The need to reduce administrative barriers to business, to provide an additional reduction of up to 10 % of insurance premiums charged on wages, to increase the period of repayment of preferential credit funds, etc. has been substantiated. © 2022 Kola Science Centre of the Russian Academy of Sciences

Challenges faced by university libraries in the context of the covid-19 pandemic

Like other institutions, libraries were not prepared to respond to everything that the Covid-19 pandemic brought: social isolation, remote work, suspension of academic activities, uncertainties about the return to the new normal, etc. This paper analyzes information from six academic libraries in the Federal District (Brazil), describing what were the first measures and steps that libraries implemented to keep up with the current life of their users. Semi-structured interviews and document research with content analysis were applied, identifying the following results: (1) Adoption of protocols and guides for users on security measures, libraries published documents with security measures, based on information from international and national institutions;(2) Use of social networks to promote services and communicate with users, with Instagram being the main ally for the dissemination of services and for being in contact with users.

ANTI-CRISIS POLICY OF THE SOUTHERN RUSSIAN REGIONS IN THE CONDITIONS OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC 1

Introduction. This study analyzes the anti-crisis policy of the southern Russian regions during the three waves of the pandemic, and also assesses the nature of its change as the corona crisis develops. It was important to identify how the regional anti-crisis policy determines the choice of mechanisms and tools for solving the problems of socio-economic development of regions. Methodology and methods. The analysis was carried out in accordance with the methodology proposed by G. Buckert, in the following areas of anti-crisis management: monitoring, training, decision-making, coordination, communication, leadership and recovery potential. The following methods were used to conduct the study: context analysis – a qualitative analysis of documents adopted by regional authorities;quantitative analysis – analysis of socio-economic indicators that reflect the reactions of the economy to decisions made by regional authorities. Analysis. The study showed that regardless of the strength of the impact of the corona crisis and the extent of the damage caused, the content of the policy of the regional authorities can be characterized as “following the center”, which is largely due to the desire to avoid responsibility for the consequences of decisions made. At the first stages of the development of the corona crisis, the goals of containing the spread of coronavirus and state support for the most affected sectors of the economy from the introduction of restrictive measures were the priority. Starting from the second and subsequent waves of the pandemic, the introduction of various measures related to the mass vaccination of the population has become a key area of regional policy. Results. The key problem of the implementation of regional policy measures is identified – inefficient information work of regional authorities, which led to information asymmetry with the increased influence of the media on the social moods of citizens. It is concluded that in order to increase the efficiency of regional policy implementation measures in order to increase the sustainability of regional development, it is important that the ongoing coordination interactions between the authorities at different levels of government have clear goals for restoring the regional economy and restorative measures should be prioritized with the supply maintenance policy. © 2022 Volgograd State University. All rights reserved.

Regional Aspects of Unemployment in Russia: Structural Approach

The study is aimed at identifying specific features and patterns of unemployment development in the Russian regions of using a structural approach, as well as forming recommendations for overcoming them. The article analyzes the dynamics of official unemployment in the regions of Russia, and also reveals the load of the unemployed population registered with the employment service bodies per one declared vacancy. The trend of reducing the number of foreign citizens who have a valid work permit in the regions of Russia in the period 2010–2019 is revealed. The analysis of unemployment in the regions of Russia by gender, age and type of settlements is carried out. It is proved that the COVID-19 pandemic has significantly changed the emerging positive trends in the labor market and employment in the regions of Russia. Its negative impact was manifested in the growth of the official unemployment rate in most regions of Russia. The article identifies the key directions of state policy to overcome negative trends in the labor market and maintain employment. © 2022, The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.

REMOTE EMPLOYMENT: EXPANSION OFANTI-MIGRATION FACTORS (USING A NUMBER OF FEDERAL ENTITIES OFTHE SOUTHERN FEDERAL DISTRICT AS AN EXAMPLE)

The relevance of the problem under consideration is related to the expansion of distance employment both in connection with the development of digital economy and under the influence of the pandemic as a new phenomenon that can affect migration. The purpose of this article is to identify the possibility of the emergence of new anti-migration factors, new measures to consolidate the population in a particular territory in connection with the development of remote employment. In contrast to the existing studies of labor migration and remote employment, a synthesis of these processes is proposed, the understanding of which has not yet been reflected in scientific papers, as the analysis of the scientific works showed. Methodology of the study is based on the results of theoretical understanding of sociological surveys of Internet recruitment data for the reasons and directions of labor migration and distance employment. People who leave for other regions and are engaged in remote work are in general characterized by higher education, relatively young age and the desire to move to large cities with developed infrastructure. Nevertheless, they differ in the types of work performed. When working remotely, they are engaged in IT technologies, accounting, audit, and legal services. During labor migration, they work in construction industry, enterprises of raw materials extraction, and industrial production, i.e. jobs involving hard physical labor. At the same time young people are more focused on intellectual work and are not interested in physical work. It is facilitated by the focus of the current education system on the development of creativity and project activities with little attention paid to the development of physical abilities. The development of distance employment is just a new factor in the consolidation of the permanently settled population in the region. For this purpose, it is suggested to change the approaches to infrastructure development, which is confirmed by the experience, for example, of Innopolis and the proactive formation of individual labor careers, primarily for native population but also for the newly arrived people. Such a policy is most important for the federal entities of the Southern Federal District the reason for moving to which is a unique natural factor and a favorable climate.Alternate : Актуальность рассматриваемой проблемы связана с расширением дистанционной занятости как в связи с развитием цифровой экономики, так и под влиянием миграционных процессов, обусловленных пандемией COVID-19. Цель данной статьи – определить возможность появления новых антимиграционных факторов, новых мер для закрепления населения на конкретной территории в связи с развитием удаленной занятости. Ð’ отличие от существующих исследований трудовой миграции и удаленной занятости в данной статье предложен синтез этих процессов, осмысление которого пока не получило отражения в научной литературе. Методологически исследование основано на результатах теоретического осмысления социологических опросов (данные интернет-рекрутмента) по причинам и направлениям трудовой миграции, дистанционной занятости. Получено, что характеристики лиц, как уезжающих в другие регионы, так и занимающихся удаленной работой, хотя и схожи по таким парамет €Ð°Ð¼, как высшее образование, относительно молодой возраст, переезд в крупные города с развитой инфраструктурой, но отличаются по видам выполняемых работ: при дистанционной занятости – это IT-технологии, бухгалтерия, аудит, юридические услуги;при трудовой миграции – строительство, добыча сырья, промышленное производство, то есть отрасли с тяжелым физическим трудом. Таким образом, молодежь в большей степени ориентирована на интеллектуальный труд и в физическом не заинтересована. Этому способствует и нацеленность сложившейся системы образования на развитие креативности, проектную деятельность, при этом развитию трудовых физических способностей уделяется незначительное внимание. Распространение дистанционной занятости является новым фактором закрепления постоянного населения в регионе. Для этого предлагается изменить подходы к развитию инфраструктуры, что подтверждает опыт, например, Иннополиса, и проактивное формирование индивидуальной трудовой карьеры, прежде всего для коренных жителей, а также для вновь прибывающего населения. Такая политика наиболее важна для субъектов ЮФО, причиной переезда вкоторые является уникальный природный фактор – благоприятный климат.

Modelling the spread of covid-19 in the capital of Brazil using numerical solution and cellular automata.

The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) still challenges researchers due to its spread and deaths. Hence, the classical epidemic SIR and SEIRD models inspired by the epidemic's outbreak are widely used to predict the evolution of the disease. In addition to classical approaches, describing complex phenomena through Cellular Automata (CA) is a highly effective way to understand the iterations on a populated system. The present research analyzed the usage of CA to generate an epidemic-computational model from a micro perspective based on parameters obtained through a statistical fit from a macro perspective. After validating SIR and SEIRD models with the government official data for Brasilia, Brazil, the authors applied the obtained parameters to the Cellular Automata model. The CA model simulated the spread of the virus from infected to uninfected people in a restrained environment (i.e., a supermarket) under several varied conditions applying an approach never adopted before. The manner of applying CA in this research proved to represent an essential tool in predicting the spread of the coronavirus in confined spaces with random movements of people. The CA numerical open-source presented has the purpose of clarifying how the spread occurs not only as a mathematical curve but in an organic way. The numerical simulations from the CA model allowed the authors to conclude that markets and stores are relevant places where might be infections. Thus, every local store and the market owner should reason about the aspects that could avoid the spread of the disease, coming up with efficient solutions. Each environment has specific features that only those who know them are the ones capable of managing.